Euribor forecast: recent data and what the future holds
If there's one thing we ask of life, it's stability. When we're in a stable situation, everything goes well. The Euribor moves in that same context; if the environment is stable, its values will be too.
Currently, the Euribor stands at 2.246%, maintaining the provisional average for December. Furthermore, during 2025, it has fluctuated between 2.227% and 2.254%.
With these values, it seems we are going to start the year off on the right foot and with quite favorable predictions about the Euribor.
What will happen to the Euribor in 2026?
If predicting the future is a complicated task, predicting the Euribor is even more so. Its value doesn't depend on a single factor; we must also consider the ECB's monetary policy decisions, the evolution of inflation in the eurozone, and macroeconomic factors such as growth and bank liquidity.
In the next section we will explain in detail how some of these factors impact things, but now, let's put all these ingredients in a cocktail shaker, and see what possible scenarios arise for this year.
| Scenery | Assumptions | Possible range Euribor 12 months |
| Conservative / Stability | The ECB maintains stable interest rates, controlled inflation, and stable macroeconomic conditions. | ~ 2.1% – 2.3% |
| Moderate / Slight decrease | ECB cuts rates moderately, inflation is low, and the macro environment is favorable. | ~ 1.9% – 2.1% |
| Optimistic / Moderate decline | ECB cuts rates + general economic improvement + prolonged low inflation | ~ 1.8% – 2.0% |
What do the European Central Bank and other financial institutions say?
We'll begin this round of predictions with the most relevant one: the European Central Bank . As the entity responsible for setting monetary policy, it stands as the main player in the future of the Euribor.
- The ECB forecasts the average 3-month Euribor rate at 1.9% for 2026. However, the 3-month forecast for 2027 is 2.1%.
- If we talk about other financial entities like Bankinter, their prediction indicates declines for 2026.
- We know that there is still a long way to go until 2030, but some entities such as Oxford Economics, BBVA Research and AFI (Consensus), predict that the Euribor could be between 2% and 2.3%.
The general trend is towards moderation and stabilization. We've gone through a period of upward movement, and now it's time for a period of stagnation with a slight decline. In this context, the ECB's role is crucial.
Factors that influence the evolution of the Euribor.
But why does the ECB appear in every paragraph? It's time to explain the role of external agents in the evolution of the Euribor:
ECB interest rate policy
The European Central Bank is the body that manages the euro and formulates and implements the economic and monetary policy of the European Union. Quite a task. When the ECB raises or lowers its official interest rates, the cost of money adjusts, and this affects the Euribor, since this index reflects the rates at which banks lend money to each other.
Inflation
High inflation usually leads to higher official interest rates (to contain it), which puts upward pressure on the Euribor. If inflation moderates, it can favor lower rates.
Macroeconomic and financial market conditions
Economic growth, crises, credit demand, liquidity, global risks, etc., affect confidence, financing costs and therefore the Euribor.
Interbank risk and market liquidity
The Euribor reflects rates at which banks mutually believe they can lend money; changes in risk perception or in the supply of liquidity have a direct influence.
All these factors allow us to predict possible future trends. But what's truly important is understanding past trends.
Historical evolution of the Euribor from 2000 to 2025
Have you ever thought that everything you did twenty years ago has influenced who you are today? Something similar happens with the Euribor. By analyzing its historical data, we can understand its likely future behavior.
Therefore, let's take a look back at the last few years to see how it has evolved:
| Year / Date | Euribor (average or key figure) | Comment |
| 2000 | 4.77% | Typical level for the early 2000s |
| 2005 | 2.24% | Significant decline compared to the beginning of the decade. |
| 2008 | 4.63 % approx. | Year of the crisis ; The Euribor reached high values before plummeting |
| 2015 | 0.05% | Stage of near-zero interest rates due to ECB policy. |
| 2021 | -0.48 % approx. | All-time low in the midst of the negative interest rate era |
| 2024 | 3.67 % approx. | Significant recovery following the ECB's interest rate hike |
| 2025 | 2.25 % approx. (estimated) | Slight stabilization compared to last year |
As you can see, this table shows how the Euribor has fluctuated considerably over the years, reflecting economic cycles and ECB decisions.
What does this mean for your mortgage?
The Euribor trend affects you primarily if you have a variable-rate mortgage. To calculate the impact of an increase or decrease, we invite you to use a simple formula:
New interest rate: Euribor (last average) + Spread agreed with the bank.
To illustrate with an example, if the rate in December 2025 is 2.246%, the spread is +1.5%. Therefore, the resulting interest rate is 3.746%.
If the Euribor falls to around 2.0%, the interest rate would be approximately 3.5%, reducing your monthly payment. If it remains stable, the payments also remain relatively constant.
| Scenery | Euribor | Differential | Mortgage interest | Approximate monthly payment (€100,000 over 20 years) |
| Conservative | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.7% | €581 |
| Moderate | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.5% | €574 |
| Optimistic | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | €567 |
If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, you can rest assured that the Euribor does not directly affect it, but knowing the trend of the index helps you decide between a fixed or variable rate and better plan your budget.
In conclusion, by the end of 2025 the Euribor is expected to stabilize at around 2.25% . Although slight decreases are possible in the coming months, monetary policy decisions and economic performance will determine its trajectory.
Staying informed and understanding how interest is calculated is key to managing your mortgage efficiently.
